World Series of Poker Champion Leo Wolpert would probably advocating squeezing preflop here, which probably has merit, but I think flatting is fine. I donk out on the flop here because I think I have the best hand but it's very vulnerable and I don't want to risk the button checking behind and a J, Q, or K falling. The button flats me and I think this range for doing so is mostly worse pairs and maybe some overcards he can't release. The turn is pretty great for me and I fire again for value against pairs and get called again. River doesn't seem terrible - it will kill my action against QT and JT but will get me paid against KT. I fire and villain shoves. I don't think he's bluff-shoving the river very often if at all and his range at this point looks to me basically like flopped sets, AK, and KT, with maaaybe some backdoored flushes or QJ. I'm not sure if he slowplays a set like this on a two-tone board and I am so suspicious that he might be doing this with something like AQ or AJ but his line seems pretty monstrous and I eventually apply the Goodeh theorem and fold. Thoughts?
I pretty much butchered this one start to finish but it is still sort of a degenerate case of the same broadly defined situation of making two pair on a river that weakens two pair. I didn't even realize during the hand that the river was just a total blank that gave me three pair, but even if I had read my hand correctly I probably still would have leveled myself into fucking it up. I should probably bet the flop but I stupidly don't because I'm afraid of folding out the shortstack instead of stacking him. So I just let him get there and I think I just made two pair on the river but even though I think improved I'm not sure I want to play with him anymore because the spade draw got there. In retrospect, I think this is a fold because villain's range includes a ton more hands that are ahead of me - any two spades, any T. But I call, reasoning that villain is shortstacked so he's going to be more volatile and his range is going to be wider in the other direction as well. Terrible.
I don't think I ever fold my two high cards facing a minraise in position preflop and when it's checked to me on the flop I'm betting here pretty much always. Turn is a relative blank so I fire again for value against worse pairs and diamond draws. The river gives me top two pair but fills the diamond draw and villain donkshoves into me for 1.3x pot and I tank-fold. I don't think there's much in his range that's worse than me. All of his Jx hands probably check/call and I don't think he makes it to the river with hands like AK or KQ. He could easily be holding diamonds or a 5. I don't think he's bluff-shoving often. I'm really suspicious that he might be enough of a sicko to turn something like JT or J9 into a bluff on this river and part of me wants to call it off with top two pair but instead I apply the Goodeh Theorem and fold. Thoughts?
NL50 Progress
$150.80 / $500.00 after 4,075 hands
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