Sunday, February 7, 2010

Interesting Spot, Possible Mistake

I ran into this spot at 1/2 Rush just now.

I don't like squeezing preflop with AJo - I have to fold to a 4bet so it's basically turning AJo into a bluff and I think calling and taking a flop gives me better chances.

The idea of my checkraise is to fold out some of his weak value hands like 55-99, possibly even TT and JJ, K9, QT, etc., and also to build a big pot against his stronger hands so that I can win a big pot if I hit. I'm pretty much planning on getting it in if he 3bets me since I still have 12 outs against his sets and two pairs and 7 outs against his flushes. But in that case I'm expecting to 3bet to $100 or so, some amount that signals that he's willing to call it off, not to shove his entire remaining $200 stack into this $70 pot. So sick.

I hadn't taken into account the decision that I would have to make if he shoved over me, since I see that so rarely. And I think his shove is just barely enough to deny me odds to call. Against even a fairly generous range of 44, KQ, and connected and 1-gap clubs, my equity is roughly 35%, which is barely what I need to call $170 to win $260 profitably. If we take out some of his KQ combinations and add in a few more club combinations and a few KK and QQ combinations, I can be as bad as 30% to win. But if we add some bluffs into his range, I start to rise back up to break-even equity. It's so close and so sick.

One big big mistake that I made in playing this and that I didn't realize until I started stoving postgame was not realizing how badly his boat redraws hurt my equity if he has a set or two pair. I have 12 clean outs against those hands, but he has so many boat outs that I'm still only 35%. I knew that fading cost me somewhat but I didn't realize that it cut that deeply into my equity. I'm glad I know this now.

The other I might have been able to better to make this an easier decision would be to size my checkraise differently, either smaller to make it an easier fold or larger to make it an easier call. The size I chose is basically perfect to make it impossible for me to play against a shove. I wonder if villain realizes how sick this really was.

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