Calling pre to setmine, betting the flop in position hoping to take down dead money. I barrel this turn basically always because it's just so good for my preflop call and flop bet range against his preflop call and flop check/call range - I don't think there are many kings in his range and there are plenty in mine. When he calls and the J falls and he checks it to me again, I fire again for basically the same reason, hoping to fold out some of his weak queens and worse pairs that he might have had trouble folding. Are there enough hands that he's not folding to a third barrel left in his range so that I should just check behind? There are a lot of two pair combinations in there. When he check/shoves over me I'm pretty sure he has something like QT or JT or a set so it's a clear fold but should I bet the river at all?
Again, not really sure how to play this river. Villain is a pretty loose 40/10 Russian and I think I'm betting for three streets of value against his draws, worse pairs, and even A-highs. Is check/calling better on the river so as not to give him a chance to shove over me with air? Should I maybe even bet/call against this villain on this board? I don't know how often he shoves with air here.
Floating to steal on the turn but he calls and I follow through on a scary turn card. Again, not sure whether I should bluff at this river or just give up and check behind. Villain tanked briefly before calling with JJ so maybe the problem is that my bet was too small, but I think I would bet this same size if I actually had a flush and were trying to get value. I think the fact that he check/called the turn was confusing and I just sort of defaulted to aggression on a vaguely scary-looking river, but now that I think about it, this river is probably not that scary of a card for his range. I think that a reasonable range for him going into the river is 22-99 and Ax and Kx of spades, and all I'm folding out of that range is 77 and 99 and I'm valuecutting myself against the rest of it. Now that I think about it, checking behind is probably best. Villain shows up with JJ which is very strange - his line seems just to make it difficult for him to play.
I'm so suspicious that he has 88-JJ here but I apply the Goodeh Theorem and fold. Thoughts?
NL 50 "Progress"
-$230.45 / $500.00 after 1,574 hands
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