Sunday, February 13, 2011
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Hands
Hand #1
A lot of people will look at this and say "oh, stop whining, it's just a cooler." But if I plan on stacking off every time on this flop, I'm laying villain fantastic implied odds to setmine against me, so how am I not hemorrhaging money here? What's the best way to play here to extract maximum value from worse without allowing him to call with any pair and play perfectly and massively profitably against me on the flop?
Hand #2
This is in retrospect a fairly obvious and huge mistake. I don't think I can fold on the turn but calling on the river is just terrible. I think that being too suspicious and doing absurd things in spots like this is my single biggest leak and has been literally since I started playing poker, and I'm so fucking discouraged by the fact that I continue to do things like this again and again - poker learning disability, etc.
A lot of people will look at this and say "oh, stop whining, it's just a cooler." But if I plan on stacking off every time on this flop, I'm laying villain fantastic implied odds to setmine against me, so how am I not hemorrhaging money here? What's the best way to play here to extract maximum value from worse without allowing him to call with any pair and play perfectly and massively profitably against me on the flop?
Hand #2
This is in retrospect a fairly obvious and huge mistake. I don't think I can fold on the turn but calling on the river is just terrible. I think that being too suspicious and doing absurd things in spots like this is my single biggest leak and has been literally since I started playing poker, and I'm so fucking discouraged by the fact that I continue to do things like this again and again - poker learning disability, etc.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Lose Lose Lose
Decided to do my Iron Man at 11:00pm instead of trying to fit it in during the day tomorrow. In retrospect, I wish I hadn't, because this was one of the most demoralizing sessions I've played in a while.
Hand #1
I really need to be betting the flop for value against QQ and JJ, but ever since I realized that people flat 3bets to setmine, I've been paranoid about running into a set. I don't think check/calling is that huge of a mistake because I do think he bets QQ and JJ there a lot. But even as played, my God, why can't I just fold the turn? He makes it so easy for me. He might bet QQ or JJ on the turn but I don't think he ever sizes it like that with anything except AA or a set hoping I have QQ+ and am not good enough to fold. And I do. And I'm not.
Hand #2
Again, I check after 3betting with KK, but in this case I think it's more justified because QQ and JJ have sets and I also get shipped on by lots of naked spades. Unfortunately, it makes it really difficult to play the turn. After the bet and call, I strongly consider folding, but talk myself into calling because they can have AQ or a naked spade. It's probably a fold. Then on the river I feel like I'm priced in, but I don't know if even terrible players play AQ like that. It's probably a fold.
Hand #3
I strongly considered folding after the short button shipped the turn, just because I don't think he checks the flop with QJ, which is the only value hand I'm beating. I tank for a while and end up calling and praying that he has QJ, which I think is a pretty big mistake. Then the other guy ships and I tank again because I have no idea what he can have. I end up timeout-folding, but I was really close to calling, which would have been awful.
These are all big and fairly obvious mistakes, and it's really frustrating to watch myself continue to make them. Guess it's just more evidence for my theory that I have some sort of poker learning disability and I'm doomed to be terrible forever.
Hand #1
I really need to be betting the flop for value against QQ and JJ, but ever since I realized that people flat 3bets to setmine, I've been paranoid about running into a set. I don't think check/calling is that huge of a mistake because I do think he bets QQ and JJ there a lot. But even as played, my God, why can't I just fold the turn? He makes it so easy for me. He might bet QQ or JJ on the turn but I don't think he ever sizes it like that with anything except AA or a set hoping I have QQ+ and am not good enough to fold. And I do. And I'm not.
Hand #2
Again, I check after 3betting with KK, but in this case I think it's more justified because QQ and JJ have sets and I also get shipped on by lots of naked spades. Unfortunately, it makes it really difficult to play the turn. After the bet and call, I strongly consider folding, but talk myself into calling because they can have AQ or a naked spade. It's probably a fold. Then on the river I feel like I'm priced in, but I don't know if even terrible players play AQ like that. It's probably a fold.
Hand #3
I strongly considered folding after the short button shipped the turn, just because I don't think he checks the flop with QJ, which is the only value hand I'm beating. I tank for a while and end up calling and praying that he has QJ, which I think is a pretty big mistake. Then the other guy ships and I tank again because I have no idea what he can have. I end up timeout-folding, but I was really close to calling, which would have been awful.
These are all big and fairly obvious mistakes, and it's really frustrating to watch myself continue to make them. Guess it's just more evidence for my theory that I have some sort of poker learning disability and I'm doomed to be terrible forever.
Hands of the Day
Played a couple of short sessions trying to grind out some Full Tilt Academy Challenges. Won a little and ran into a couple of interesting spots.
Hand #1
This was the very first hand of the session and I made it without the benefit of my HUD. I assumed villain was at least semi-competent based on his stack size. Going into the turn I think his range is largely one pair and I think I can make him fold. On the river, QQ makes a set and is never folding, so I'm not sure if firing again to get him off KK+ is better than giving up.
Hand #2
Villain is a solid reg. Raising this turn seems dubious - it seems like it lets him play perfectly against me. I was hoping to make him fold a set or possibly two pair that he can play like this, but I think he's happy stacking off here with a set and my raise just folds out all of his bluffs. It might be better just to flat the turn, try to get paid if I bink the river, check and win a showdown against some of his bluffs that give up on the river, and fold against his river 3-barrel range. However, he did tank before folding, so maybe I did make him throw away T9 or 77.
Hand #1
This was the very first hand of the session and I made it without the benefit of my HUD. I assumed villain was at least semi-competent based on his stack size. Going into the turn I think his range is largely one pair and I think I can make him fold. On the river, QQ makes a set and is never folding, so I'm not sure if firing again to get him off KK+ is better than giving up.
Hand #2
Villain is a solid reg. Raising this turn seems dubious - it seems like it lets him play perfectly against me. I was hoping to make him fold a set or possibly two pair that he can play like this, but I think he's happy stacking off here with a set and my raise just folds out all of his bluffs. It might be better just to flat the turn, try to get paid if I bink the river, check and win a showdown against some of his bluffs that give up on the river, and fold against his river 3-barrel range. However, he did tank before folding, so maybe I did make him throw away T9 or 77.
Saturday, January 8, 2011
Lose Lose Lose
Lost about $100 over about 1,000 hands of NL50 FR Rush. Felt like I was constantly getting owned by everyone.
Hand #1
This line is unexpected and I'm not sure what villain can have when he does this. He seems like a solid TAG over a few hundred hands. If he were nittier, I could fold river comfortably, but I'm suspicious that this can be a weird thin value line with AJ, or some creative bluff designed to make me fold the exact hand I have. Not really sure what to do here.
Hand #2
Same villain. I briefly considered folding on the turn but I have spade outs and I think I can get at least some value out of him if I hit. I strongly considered check/raising the river as a bluff because I have the king of spades, but I don't know if I can make him fold a flush or even a set.
Hand #1
This line is unexpected and I'm not sure what villain can have when he does this. He seems like a solid TAG over a few hundred hands. If he were nittier, I could fold river comfortably, but I'm suspicious that this can be a weird thin value line with AJ, or some creative bluff designed to make me fold the exact hand I have. Not really sure what to do here.
Hand #2
Same villain. I briefly considered folding on the turn but I have spade outs and I think I can get at least some value out of him if I hit. I strongly considered check/raising the river as a bluff because I have the king of spades, but I don't know if I can make him fold a flush or even a set.
Friday, January 7, 2011
Justice
Played another hour-long session of 4 tables of NL50 FR Rush. Thought I played fairly well, but ran bad EV-wise and lost $134ish. I don't really mind this at all. In fact, I'm still so far above my lifetime all-in EV that I think of sessions like this as "fixing my EV" - a kind of weird, perverse form of justice. After today's session, I'm "only" $690.60 over EV.
A semi-interesting spot came up:
Hand
I only had a dozen or so hands on villain at this point but he seemed nitty. I doubt I'm ever ahead after he bets again on the river - I don't think he ever does this with JJ or worse - but I'm not sure when in the hand the best time to fold is. Can he still have JJ when he bets the turn after I call his check/minraise? Might I even fold to the check/minraise on the flop?
A semi-interesting spot came up:
Hand
I only had a dozen or so hands on villain at this point but he seemed nitty. I doubt I'm ever ahead after he bets again on the river - I don't think he ever does this with JJ or worse - but I'm not sure when in the hand the best time to fold is. Can he still have JJ when he bets the turn after I call his check/minraise? Might I even fold to the check/minraise on the flop?
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Folding KK
Played again today and ran very well and won about $80. Only one kind of interesting spot:
Hand
I ended up timeout-folding, but I'm definitely not sure that was the best play. I don't mind getting it in against the 4bettor, who I don't know but who I think is too loose. But I'm not totally comfortable getting it in against the 3bettor, who is a solid reg, even though he's 3betting a little lighter than average over the 400 or so hands I have on him, because we're 150bb deep. I feel like folding is so nitty but I have so much trouble formulating a good plan for calling or 5betting. Maybe I could flat, call one bet if an A flops and then check/fold down, bet once if no A? Maybe I could 5bet to $22 and fold if the reg ships? Maybe I could 5bet and call it off? Maybe I could...do something else? Quit poker? Join the circus?
Hand
I ended up timeout-folding, but I'm definitely not sure that was the best play. I don't mind getting it in against the 4bettor, who I don't know but who I think is too loose. But I'm not totally comfortable getting it in against the 3bettor, who is a solid reg, even though he's 3betting a little lighter than average over the 400 or so hands I have on him, because we're 150bb deep. I feel like folding is so nitty but I have so much trouble formulating a good plan for calling or 5betting. Maybe I could flat, call one bet if an A flops and then check/fold down, bet once if no A? Maybe I could 5bet to $22 and fold if the reg ships? Maybe I could 5bet and call it off? Maybe I could...do something else? Quit poker? Join the circus?
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Rigged?
I'm actually more comfortable with this than I am with yesterday's result - at least this way, I know it's just the cards.
To be fair, it wasn't all just runbad - there were a couple of interesting spots.
Hand #1
Not sure how much fold equity I have on the turn - calling and hoping to stack him if I hit on the river might be better than shipping over him when he pots it.
Hand #2
I strongly suspect that shipping the turn is a mistake. I was excited to have a set and really wanted to get it in before a fourth spade came off, but I'm pretty sure my line allows him to play perfectly against me. It might be better to check back the turn and fold against most river bets, and possibly bet small for thin value if checked to on a non-spade river.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
A Win Is A Win?
Just wrapped up a winning session. I ran about $140 over EV, which is a nice result but ultimately just further undermines my confidence in my ability to win without getting unbelievably lucky. I'm trying just to be happy that I won some money, but it's hard to take much pleasure in that when what I really want is some sort of confirmation that I'm a long-term winning player in this game and I've broken even over the past 28,000 hands and I'm still stuck about $190 over the 9,515 hands I've played this year.
Monday, January 3, 2011
I think...
...this is actually a check/fold on the river. This villain is pretty nitty and I don't think he 3bets TT or JJ pre. His range is pretty much exactly {KK+, AK} and on the river, with the four-flush on the board, I think he only ever bets with the Kc or Ac.
Sunday, January 2, 2011
Fuck 2011
So far this year, I've played 5,942 hands for NL50 FR Rush and I'm stuck $326.80. I've broken even over the past 25,000 hands. This is pretty frustrating and is giving me some serious second thoughts about this most recent attempt at putting in decent volume. I feel like I'm playing well, but my results over a fairly large sample don't seem consistent with that feeling. My winrate is a fraction of that of the better regs and I wish I knew what they were doing differently from me.
Hand #1
Fold turn? No idea if villain is ever shipping with worse.
Hand #2
I've been experimenting with 3betting QJ and KJ against late position opens and I ended up in this spot. This is really just one manifestation of a broader problem I have trying to range villains when they call 3bets. I've been assuming something like {JJ+, AQ+} but recently I've seen villains show up with all sorts of pocket pairs and broadways. Anyway, I basically have no plan going into the flop and have really no idea what to do, so I just bet out for really no good reason. After I get called, I feel like his range is basically TT+ so I'm planning on check/calling and expecting to win at showdown after the river goes check-check. But hey, villain had AJ. Does this mean I shouldn't 3bet pre? No clue what to do.
Hand #1
Fold turn? No idea if villain is ever shipping with worse.
Hand #2
I've been experimenting with 3betting QJ and KJ against late position opens and I ended up in this spot. This is really just one manifestation of a broader problem I have trying to range villains when they call 3bets. I've been assuming something like {JJ+, AQ+} but recently I've seen villains show up with all sorts of pocket pairs and broadways. Anyway, I basically have no plan going into the flop and have really no idea what to do, so I just bet out for really no good reason. After I get called, I feel like his range is basically TT+ so I'm planning on check/calling and expecting to win at showdown after the river goes check-check. But hey, villain had AJ. Does this mean I shouldn't 3bet pre? No clue what to do.
Saturday, January 1, 2011
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