Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Couple of Hands From Today

Hand #1
Really don't know about my line here. I think I get a lot of folds from Ax on the turn, but I don't know if anything that calls on the turn is going to fold to my bet on the river.

Hand #2
I've been experimenting with checking some strong hands on the flop in multi-way pots when out of position as pre-flop raiser. I think I feel more comfortable balancing my checking range with some strength than I would feel trying to balance my betting range by cbetting some missed overcards or underpairs into two people, but I'm really not sure. Anyway, regardless of the merits of that, I'm really unsure about my river call. I have villain as 8/4 over 102 hands. I don't think he ever bets TT, QJ, AJ, or QQ on the river. AK is a possibility but this villain sometimes 3bets pre with AK, does not always bet the flop with AK, and will probably sometimes check behind on the river with AK, so AK needs to be discounted at least somewhat from his range. He might have some 55-88 that he turned into a bluff, but I don't think this villain does that very often, and even if he does, I think he gives up on the river fairly often. And he can play all of his sets and sometimes KJ like this. It really comes down to how often he can have AK and how often he's bluffing, but he has to have a lot of AK and bluffs for the call to be okay. Even if we give him 12.5% of his AK (2 out of 16 combos) and 16.7% of his 55-88 (4 out of 24 combos), we still only have 23% equity against a range composed of those, sets, and KJs, so it's a fold getting 3:1.

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