Villain is 49/11 and I don't really know how to weight his range here. I think he gets it in on the flop with most of his sets but I can easily see him flatting them too. I think he holds onto most of his pairs but I can easily see him folding them too. My turn shove is hoping to get it in against a pair that he can't release and still have 10 outs against his sets but it turns out that I actually have 16. Obviously he dodges them. But I have no idea whether or not my play was correct because I don't know enough about villain's tendencies.
Same villain. I'm calling his stupid min3bet hoping for basically this exact flop. When he flats my checkraise I have the same problem as in the previous hand, where I think his range is mostly weak pairs but maybe some sets and I don't know how to weight them. When the super-scary turn falls, I bite down and shove for twice the pot, reasoning that his pairs really have to think twice about calling and even if they do I have 15 outs against them going into the river. I've been watching some Ed Miller videos on Stoxpoker and I've been trying out plays like shove overbet semibluffs against weak players, hoping that they get confused and make mistakes. He tank-calls and it turns out that I have way fewer outs than I thought. This is admittedly a high-variance play, but I'm not sure that it works out often enough to be worth making, since a lot of the hands that fold might just check that turn and give me a free card, and a lot of the hands that call are going to have a higher club and I won't have any flush outs.
Same villain again. My first big mistake in this hand is not 3betting enough to cover the short opener. In doing so, I trap myself into this ridiculous situation where I'm forced to flat when he shoves because of that stupid rule that doesn't let you shove over a shove. I feel like there was a time when I understood the rationale behind that rule but I've forgotten it and if anyone wants to refresh my memory, I'm all ears. Anyway, I cbet the dry flop and villain shoves and I make the second big mistake of the hand - stupidly instafolding because I'm scared of the absolute size of the shove while ignoring effective stacks and the fact that I'm actually getting almost 3:1 on this call with two overcards and a backdoor flush draw. This stupidity ended up working out for me because villain had A9, but even looking backwards, I have no idea whether or not a call would have been right because again, I have no idea how to range this villain. I think he has TT or JJ a lot there but obviously he showed up with A9, and he could conceivably have all sorts of hands. Help...
Similar to Hand #3, I need to decide whether or not to stack off getting 3:1 with two overcards and a backdoor flush draw. Here at least I gave myself the chance to make a reasoned decision, but I decide to make the call and got shown a set. I thought I was against mostly pairs and I really didn't think that 88 was even in his range after he min3bet and called my 4bet. I'm not sure if I should have considered possible sets or slowplayed KK+, or weighted them heavily enough to shift the analysis toward a fold.
I'd been feeling so good about poker recently but this session brought back a lot of old the feelings of confusion and disorientation and uncertainty that I had been starting to clear from my head. It also undid a lot of the progress I had been making toward my 10-buyin goal. Hopefully this is just a blip and I can get back on track and crush my way up to that goal soon.
NL50 Progress
$85.05 / $500.00 after 16,586 hands
No comments:
Post a Comment