Justice

Played another hour-long session of 4 tables of NL50 FR Rush. Thought I played fairly well, but ran bad EV-wise and lost $134ish. I don't really mind this at all. In fact, I'm still so far above my lifetime all-in EV that I think of sessions like this as "fixing my EV" - a kind of weird, perverse form of justice. After today's session, I'm "only" $690.60 over EV.

A semi-interesting spot came up:

Hand
I only had a dozen or so hands on villain at this point but he seemed nitty. I doubt I'm ever ahead after he bets again on the river - I don't think he ever does this with JJ or worse - but I'm not sure when in the hand the best time to fold is. Can he still have JJ when he bets the turn after I call his check/minraise? Might I even fold to the check/minraise on the flop?

Folding KK

Played again today and ran very well and won about $80. Only one kind of interesting spot:

Hand

I ended up timeout-folding, but I'm definitely not sure that was the best play. I don't mind getting it in against the 4bettor, who I don't know but who I think is too loose. But I'm not totally comfortable getting it in against the 3bettor, who is a solid reg, even though he's 3betting a little lighter than average over the 400 or so hands I have on him, because we're 150bb deep. I feel like folding is so nitty but I have so much trouble formulating a good plan for calling or 5betting. Maybe I could flat, call one bet if an A flops and then check/fold down, bet once if no A? Maybe I could 5bet to $22 and fold if the reg ships? Maybe I could 5bet and call it off? Maybe I could...do something else? Quit poker? Join the circus?

Rigged?

I'm actually more comfortable with this than I am with yesterday's result - at least this way, I know it's just the cards.

To be fair, it wasn't all just runbad - there were a couple of interesting spots.

Hand #1
Not sure how much fold equity I have on the turn - calling and hoping to stack him if I hit on the river might be better than shipping over him when he pots it.

Hand #2
I strongly suspect that shipping the turn is a mistake. I was excited to have a set and really wanted to get it in before a fourth spade came off, but I'm pretty sure my line allows him to play perfectly against me. It might be better to check back the turn and fold against most river bets, and possibly bet small for thin value if checked to on a non-spade river.

A Win Is A Win?

Just wrapped up a winning session. I ran about $140 over EV, which is a nice result but ultimately just further undermines my confidence in my ability to win without getting unbelievably lucky. I'm trying just to be happy that I won some money, but it's hard to take much pleasure in that when what I really want is some sort of confirmation that I'm a long-term winning player in this game and I've broken even over the past 28,000 hands and I'm still stuck about $190 over the 9,515 hands I've played this year.

I think...

...this is actually a check/fold on the river. This villain is pretty nitty and I don't think he 3bets TT or JJ pre. His range is pretty much exactly {KK+, AK} and on the river, with the four-flush on the board, I think he only ever bets with the Kc or Ac.

Fuck 2011

So far this year, I've played 5,942 hands for NL50 FR Rush and I'm stuck $326.80. I've broken even over the past 25,000 hands. This is pretty frustrating and is giving me some serious second thoughts about this most recent attempt at putting in decent volume. I feel like I'm playing well, but my results over a fairly large sample don't seem consistent with that feeling. My winrate is a fraction of that of the better regs and I wish I knew what they were doing differently from me.

Hand #1
Fold turn? No idea if villain is ever shipping with worse.

Hand #2
I've been experimenting with 3betting QJ and KJ against late position opens and I ended up in this spot. This is really just one manifestation of a broader problem I have trying to range villains when they call 3bets. I've been assuming something like {JJ+, AQ+} but recently I've seen villains show up with all sorts of pocket pairs and broadways. Anyway, I basically have no plan going into the flop and have really no idea what to do, so I just bet out for really no good reason. After I get called, I feel like his range is basically TT+ so I'm planning on check/calling and expecting to win at showdown after the river goes check-check. But hey, villain had AJ. Does this mean I shouldn't 3bet pre? No clue what to do.

Help

http://weaktight.com/3067447

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